In a bid to bring some semblance of order to the tumultuous Middle East, French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have made a political pact.
This week, the two leaders convened in Riyadh to sign a strategic partnership agreement, pledging to work together to bring some calm to the region. With Lebanon’s long-delayed presidential elections serving as the center of their agreement, the leaders have shown a mutual commitment to restoring stability in the beleaguered country.
The partnership comes as a surprising move, considering the strained Franco-Saudi relations in recent years, driven by disagreements over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. However, both leaders seem to have buried the hatchet, allowing strategic pragmatism to triumph over past grievances. This newfound rapprochement suggests a shift in the geopolitical landscape, with France seeking to reassert its historical influence in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia eager to bolster its international credibility.
The focus on Lebanon is of no coincidence. The country is in the middle of an economic crisis, with a plunging currency, soaring inflation, and a political vacuum. Macron and the Crown Prince recognise the ticking time bomb that is Lebanon, and their call for elections is a clear bid to restore legitimacy to the country’s struggling institutions. It’s a move that could potentially stave off complete economic collapse and prevent further descent into chaos, benefiting not only Lebanon but the whole region.
However, the partnership’s success is contingent on many variables. It depends on how Lebanon’s political factions respond to this international push, and whether they can overcome their parochial interests for the broader national good. France and Saudi Arabia’s influence, although significant, is limited in the face of Lebanon’s entrenched sectarian power structures. Moreover, the involvement of external actors could potentially exacerbate the country’s divisions, rather than heal them.
This Franco-Saudi initiative is a compelling attempt to solve the Middle Eastern conundrum. Yet, it is laced with uncertainties. Critics may see it as an example of old-fashioned realpolitik, with big powers seeking to impose their will on smaller nations. Supporters, on the other hand, may view it as a vital step towards reestablishing regional equilibrium. Regardless of the perspectives, Macron and the Crown Prince’s partnership could shape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape in the years to come.
The outcome of the partnership will likely have far-reaching implications for the region’s political climate and its financial markets. With Macron and the Crown Prince joining forces, the Middle East stands on the brink of a new era. Whether this will usher in an epoch of peace or further turmoil remains to be seen.
