A New Syrian Leader
The recent emergence of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria’s new leader has added a fresh dimension to the ongoing US-China rivalry. Al-Sharaa’s political trajectory and his expressed intent to foster ties with Russia and Iran, key allies of the Assad regime, indicate a shifting geopolitical landscape that could affect the dynamics of the US-China standoff.
The Context and Significance
Al-Sharaa’s leadership comes at a crucial juncture for Syria, a country embroiled in a devastating civil war for over a decade. His recent interview with Saudi media, in which he discussed a path to elections and the importance of Russia and Iran ties, carries significant implications for the US-China rivalry.
The Syrian conflict has been a battleground for international influence, with Russia and Iran supporting the Assad regime, while the US and its allies have backed opposition forces. Al-Sharaa’s intent to strengthen ties with Russia and Iran could tilt the balance in favor of these countries, potentially widening the rift between the US and China, given the latter’s growing alignment with Russia and Iran.
An Opening for the U.S. and Turkey
In his interview, al-Sharaa noted: “We hope that the current US administration will lift the sanctions. It will take at least four years to organize elections.” This statement underscores his intent to seek rapprochement with the US while maintaining ties with Russia and Iran.
However, the US has expressed concerns about Syria’s ties with Russia and Iran. A report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in 2019 stated, “The US must remain vigilant against the increasing influence of Russia and Iran in Syria, which threatens to destabilize the region and extend China’s reach.”
With the power of Russia and Iran now significantly diminished in war-ravaged Syria, the moment may be ripe for the U.S. to step in and fill the void. Collaborating with Turkey, the U.S. could play a pivotal role in stabilizing and rebuilding the country.
Implications For China
Al-Sharaa’s leadership and his expressed intent to balance relations with the US and its traditional rivals could prove to be a diplomatic tightrope walk for Syria. His hopes for lifting US sanctions hinge on his ability to convince the US of his commitment to democratic processes and regional stability.
Concurrently, China may view the developments in Syria as an opportunity to expand its influence in the Middle East, potentially aligning with Russia and Iran to counterbalance US power. This could exacerbate tensions between the US and China, making the Syrian issue a potential flashpoint in their rivalry.
Looking Ahead
While al-Sharaa’s intent to balance ties with the US and its traditional rivals is a pragmatic approach, it is fraught with challenges. His ability to deliver on his promise of democratic elections within four years will be crucial in determining Syria’s international standing and its role in the US-China rivalry.
Moreover, the growing alignment of China with Russia and Iran represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape. It has the potential to heighten tensions between the US and China, with Syria becoming a new arena for their strategic competition.
